US Data Update: Payrolls
Today's Payrolls and Unemployment Data: January 2025 Report
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Summary:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Situation report for January 2025 today, February 7, 2025. The report indicates a slowdown in job growth compared to the previous month, but the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
Key Findings:
Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 143,000 in January. This is similar to the average monthly gain of 166,000 in 2024, but lower than the revised figures for November and December 2024.
Job gains were concentrated in health care (+44,000), retail trade (+34,000), and social assistance (+22,000).
Government employment continued to trend upwards, adding 32,000 jobs in January.
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction saw a decline of 8,000 jobs.
Other major industries including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other services showed little change in employment over the month.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent in January.
The number of unemployed persons remained relatively stable at 6.8 million.
Unemployment rates showed little or no change across major worker groups, including adult men (3.7%), adult women (3.7%), teenagers (11.8%), Whites (3.5%), Blacks (6.2%), Asians (3.7%), and Hispanics (4.8%).
The number of long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.4 million, accounting for 21.1 percent of the total unemployed population, and showed little change in January.
Revisions to Previous Data:
The job gains for November and December 2024 were revised upwards significantly.
November's change was revised up by 49,000 to +261,000.
December's change was revised up by 51,000 to +307,000.
Despite these upward revisions, the annual benchmark revision for March 2024 resulted in a downward revision of 598,000 jobs.
Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.5 percent, or 17 cents, to $35.87 in January.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent.
Average Workweek: The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours in January.
Analysis:
The January employment report indicates a cooling in the pace of job growth compared to the end of 2024, although job gains remain positive. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.0%, suggesting a still tight labor market. Wage growth unexpectedly quickened, which may be a point of concern for inflation. The revisions to previous months' data highlight the dynamic nature of employment statistics and the importance of considering benchmark revisions when interpreting trends.
Sources:
Employment Situation News Release - Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Situation Summary - Bureau of Labor Statistics
United States Non Farm Payrolls - Trading Economics
